This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which will be the previous UFC on FOX card on account of this brand new ESPN deal. We are back to getting smaller prize pools with this occasion but there is still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entry using $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a nice top prize are always my favorite competitions to chase so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a good amount of play in games. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is almost always the best fight to get into cash games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a whole lot of sense. I believe that you can pile the most important event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score tremendously and according to Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he possess a top floor, but he likely has the maximum ceiling on the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we found a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is virtually a PK battle on the betting odds now. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s ownership will go down because of that and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes at the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He does not even require a end to score 100+ points and that’s why I like him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he does win then he should score well.
Underdog drama of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I love the value we are getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I do expect him to be one of the most well-known underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s probably going to be so not only could he have the win, but he would score highly too. I believe if he can win this fight then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he is my favourite underdog of the week because of this.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I’m really picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style I don’t see him getting more than 10x that wages. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so far in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. If he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your chances in winning a GPP as the other guys because $9k stove likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then you can discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)
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